Tuesday, January 20, 2009
The Day Hell Froze Over!
It was so cold for Obama's inauguration it snowed here in Charlotte—just a dusting, but enough for Sophie and I to enjoy. I guess Hell has finally frozen over!
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Yes, we have at last overcome...but the world is still a frightening place!
Unbelievable!
I must admit I was not prepared when the announcement finally came that Barack Obama would be our next president. I'd been so focused on getting him elected it somehow never occurred to me that the decision might be imminent.
I was still prepared to lose the election to the Bradley effect or, short of that, to face a long struggle through the courts. If it came to that, of course, the Supreme Court would probably throw the election to the Republicans again and for no other reason than that their deeply dishonest, corrupt souls wanted to! At the very best, it was going to take days to sort things out. That's what I thought.
But no! Here it was before midnight and McCain was already conceding! Not just conceding, but doing so in the most magnanimous way possible! That concession speech, in fact, may go down as the most important and profound in our nation's history. He must have realized—as we all do, but dare not admit—that the chances of Obama finishing his presidency alive are slim!
Lest you think me cruel, you must remember that JFK was president during my formative years and that I not only lived through his assassination, but that of his brother as well. When you add the assassination of MLK on top of that, the result is a profound dread on my part! For me, it's not a question of "If," but "When?"
That was the subtext for John McCain's speech last night. He knows the dangers that lurk in the shadows ahead. The only question is why he poured his whole heart and soul into that concession speech. He didn't have to. Except for one fact, it's difficult to believe that he was even capable of such a grand gesture. "What fact?" you ask.
I was still prepared to lose the election to the Bradley effect or, short of that, to face a long struggle through the courts. If it came to that, of course, the Supreme Court would probably throw the election to the Republicans again and for no other reason than that their deeply dishonest, corrupt souls wanted to! At the very best, it was going to take days to sort things out. That's what I thought.
But no! Here it was before midnight and McCain was already conceding! Not just conceding, but doing so in the most magnanimous way possible! That concession speech, in fact, may go down as the most important and profound in our nation's history. He must have realized—as we all do, but dare not admit—that the chances of Obama finishing his presidency alive are slim!
Lest you think me cruel, you must remember that JFK was president during my formative years and that I not only lived through his assassination, but that of his brother as well. When you add the assassination of MLK on top of that, the result is a profound dread on my part! For me, it's not a question of "If," but "When?"
That was the subtext for John McCain's speech last night. He knows the dangers that lurk in the shadows ahead. The only question is why he poured his whole heart and soul into that concession speech. He didn't have to. Except for one fact, it's difficult to believe that he was even capable of such a grand gesture. "What fact?" you ask.
Bridget McCain—the dark-skinned woman shown in the image above! Cindy McCain found her in a Bangladesh orphanage sponsored by Mother Teresa—an abandoned three-month baby in need of medical treatment—and decided to adopt her! What's more, John McCain lost the 2000 election in part because of rumors in South Carolina that Bridget was his illegitimate, Black child!
In other words, McCain has experienced racial prejudice from the receiving end. That ultimately explains why he chose not to run any Reverend Wright ads, and it explains last night!
In other words, McCain has experienced racial prejudice from the receiving end. That ultimately explains why he chose not to run any Reverend Wright ads, and it explains last night!
This image of Jesse Jackson illustrates how I felt when the news finally broke. I couldn't control the tears! The weight of history finally overwhelmed me. Even now the tears are beginning to well up again. It's an almost impossible dream!
For me personally, it feels like Camelot's been reborn again. "Camelot?" you may be wondering. That's what the JFK era was called even at the time. This goes far beyond the Clinton years. It belongs to an entirely higher realm—an almost mythical realm where history is written on the stars!
For me personally, it feels like Camelot's been reborn again. "Camelot?" you may be wondering. That's what the JFK era was called even at the time. This goes far beyond the Clinton years. It belongs to an entirely higher realm—an almost mythical realm where history is written on the stars!
The emotion felt at the sight of the newly elected president and his young family was also reminiscent of the Kennedy family. The growing sense of awe was only heightened by Obama's remarkable reserve. He didn't celebrate. He quietly comforted and calmed. He was, if anything, pensive. He even undercut his usually soaring rhetoric. "Yes we can" was more of an afterthought than a exclamation.
As a result, the effect was not jubilation, but introspection. There was a sense of relaxation, but not victory in the usual sense. It was a gathering in of breath as if preparing for the long road ahead. As he said, this was not the change itself, it was only the opportunity to make the change. Now the real work begins!
As a result, the effect was not jubilation, but introspection. There was a sense of relaxation, but not victory in the usual sense. It was a gathering in of breath as if preparing for the long road ahead. As he said, this was not the change itself, it was only the opportunity to make the change. Now the real work begins!
Some of you, I know, think I shouldn't have mentioned my fears...as if that alone may jinx Barack. It's certainly not mentioned on the media, for instance. This unspoken foreboding, however, only demonstrates how profound our fears actually are. They cannot even be mentioned! They must be mentioned by someone, though, if only to make sure that everything possible—and I mean everything!—is being done to keep him safe.
Congratulations, Nation! It's a new day after the long, national nightmare that was the Bush years.
Monday, November 3, 2008
The Benchmark for Measuring the Bradley Effect
Here's the final CNN Poll of Polls (ending Novmber 2, 2008):
- 51% Obama
- 44% McCain
It's against this measure that tomorrow's results will be judged, especially the Bradley effect!
Monday, October 27, 2008
Obama's Lead in the Polls
As the CNN poll of polls below shows, Obama's lead has been surprisingly stable over the last six months at about six or seven points.
chart by Jim Whiteside
The only things that have significantly moved the numbers are Sarah Palin's acceptance speech (which pulled the tickets even at 46 percent) and the economic meltdown (which not only erased the Palin effect, but pushed Obama over 50% for the first time).
More importantly, the trend for Obama leveled off at 51% about a week ago. If that holds, he finally has enough votes to win. In other words, the American public appears to have settled on Obama as a direct result of the present economic crisis.
That's not to say the election won't be close. The Bradley effect suggests that a large marjority of the undecideds will break for McCain. That's why breaking the 50% barrier is so critical...critical to a close win, in other words, nothing more!
More importantly, the trend for Obama leveled off at 51% about a week ago. If that holds, he finally has enough votes to win. In other words, the American public appears to have settled on Obama as a direct result of the present economic crisis.
That's not to say the election won't be close. The Bradley effect suggests that a large marjority of the undecideds will break for McCain. That's why breaking the 50% barrier is so critical...critical to a close win, in other words, nothing more!
The CNN Poll of Polls
Did you know there's one poll that claims to have no margin of error? Yes! It's the CNN National Poll of Polls.
chart by Jim Whiteside
How is that possible? By combining up to eleven different polls, it increases the sample size. That reduces the margin of error. Once the margin drops below half a point, you can say with a high degree of confidence that the results are accurate...but not perfect! There's still a margin of error. It's just very small.
Adding to its significance are the polls included in the CNN poll:
Adding to its significance are the polls included in the CNN poll:
- American Research Group
- Franklin & Marshall
- IPSOS-McClatchy
- Fox/Opinion Dynamics
- AP/GfK
- Pew
- CNN/ORC
- ABC/Washington Post
- Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
- Gallup
- Diageo/Hotline
There are several new factors, however, that may reduce its accuracy in this unusual election:
- The Bradley effect
- The inability of pollers to accurately sample cell phone users
- Unknown turnout percentages for enthusiast new voters
- Unknown turnout percentages for enthusiast young voters
- Unknown turnout percentages for enthusiast Black voters
The Bradley effect suggests that nearly all of the undecided voters will break for the white candidate. Since the latest poll of polls has Obama at 51%, that shouldn't be problem unless the race tightens. The cell phone problem, however, will take several election cycles to clarify.
The effects of enthusiasm, however, have always been overestimated. Young, new, and even Blacks have always disappointed their believers in the past. Since Obama is Black, there's good reason to think this time might be different, but even that's not a sure thing.
Since it's not clear how the pollsters are weighting all of these factors in their sampling techniques, CNN's claim of a zero margin of error can only be taken with a grain of salt. Even if the election were held tomorrow, it's still possible that McCain would win.
The effects of enthusiasm, however, have always been overestimated. Young, new, and even Blacks have always disappointed their believers in the past. Since Obama is Black, there's good reason to think this time might be different, but even that's not a sure thing.
Since it's not clear how the pollsters are weighting all of these factors in their sampling techniques, CNN's claim of a zero margin of error can only be taken with a grain of salt. Even if the election were held tomorrow, it's still possible that McCain would win.
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