Here's an amazing speech by Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont on the Republican war on America. The most amazing thing about this speech is how it recaptures the vocabulary of successful politics in America. He even says a few of his Republican friends are proud to be Americans...implying that most are actually unpatriotic...which they are! What he's saying is that they're putting selfish interests ahead of American interests. That's how to win elections!
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Friday, October 2, 2009
"Die Quickly"
The subject of this post on Facebook is a comment by a Democratic congressman who described the Republiccan health-care plan as having three steps, the last of which is "Die quickly!" He then went on CNN and engaged in a shouting match with a Republican strategist. That led to this exchange on Facebook:
Monday, September 28, 2009
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Historical Equanimity
The following is a comment I added to a Charlotte Observer editorial by Taylor Batten entitled "We ignore bias charges at our own peril." His article was published Sunday, September 20, 2009.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Friday, August 7, 2009
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Taking the Hatred out of Politics
From Raw Shakti (Taialofa and Kevin's Yoga Business) On Facebook:
Yoga Sutra I.33 - Patanjali:My Reply:
By cultivating attitudes of friendliness towards the happy, compassion for the unhappy, delight in the virtuous, and disregard toward the wicked, the mind-stuff retains its undisturbed calmness.I really like this sutra because it is one of the few sutras, if not the only sutra, that talks about relationship with others. I find this very helpful when trying to respond to others.
What a lovely quote. To be so simple, it's quite inspiring. It suggests a way to stay politically active and still be happy...by adopting a compassionate rather than antagonistic attitude toward the opposition. In other words, it takes the hatred out of politics and puts the love back in!
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
The Day Hell Froze Over!
It was so cold for Obama's inauguration it snowed here in Charlotte—just a dusting, but enough for Sophie and I to enjoy. I guess Hell has finally frozen over!
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Yes, we have at last overcome...but the world is still a frightening place!
Unbelievable!
I must admit I was not prepared when the announcement finally came that Barack Obama would be our next president. I'd been so focused on getting him elected it somehow never occurred to me that the decision might be imminent.
I was still prepared to lose the election to the Bradley effect or, short of that, to face a long struggle through the courts. If it came to that, of course, the Supreme Court would probably throw the election to the Republicans again and for no other reason than that their deeply dishonest, corrupt souls wanted to! At the very best, it was going to take days to sort things out. That's what I thought.
But no! Here it was before midnight and McCain was already conceding! Not just conceding, but doing so in the most magnanimous way possible! That concession speech, in fact, may go down as the most important and profound in our nation's history. He must have realized—as we all do, but dare not admit—that the chances of Obama finishing his presidency alive are slim!
Lest you think me cruel, you must remember that JFK was president during my formative years and that I not only lived through his assassination, but that of his brother as well. When you add the assassination of MLK on top of that, the result is a profound dread on my part! For me, it's not a question of "If," but "When?"
That was the subtext for John McCain's speech last night. He knows the dangers that lurk in the shadows ahead. The only question is why he poured his whole heart and soul into that concession speech. He didn't have to. Except for one fact, it's difficult to believe that he was even capable of such a grand gesture. "What fact?" you ask.
I was still prepared to lose the election to the Bradley effect or, short of that, to face a long struggle through the courts. If it came to that, of course, the Supreme Court would probably throw the election to the Republicans again and for no other reason than that their deeply dishonest, corrupt souls wanted to! At the very best, it was going to take days to sort things out. That's what I thought.
But no! Here it was before midnight and McCain was already conceding! Not just conceding, but doing so in the most magnanimous way possible! That concession speech, in fact, may go down as the most important and profound in our nation's history. He must have realized—as we all do, but dare not admit—that the chances of Obama finishing his presidency alive are slim!
Lest you think me cruel, you must remember that JFK was president during my formative years and that I not only lived through his assassination, but that of his brother as well. When you add the assassination of MLK on top of that, the result is a profound dread on my part! For me, it's not a question of "If," but "When?"
That was the subtext for John McCain's speech last night. He knows the dangers that lurk in the shadows ahead. The only question is why he poured his whole heart and soul into that concession speech. He didn't have to. Except for one fact, it's difficult to believe that he was even capable of such a grand gesture. "What fact?" you ask.
Bridget McCain—the dark-skinned woman shown in the image above! Cindy McCain found her in a Bangladesh orphanage sponsored by Mother Teresa—an abandoned three-month baby in need of medical treatment—and decided to adopt her! What's more, John McCain lost the 2000 election in part because of rumors in South Carolina that Bridget was his illegitimate, Black child!
In other words, McCain has experienced racial prejudice from the receiving end. That ultimately explains why he chose not to run any Reverend Wright ads, and it explains last night!
In other words, McCain has experienced racial prejudice from the receiving end. That ultimately explains why he chose not to run any Reverend Wright ads, and it explains last night!
This image of Jesse Jackson illustrates how I felt when the news finally broke. I couldn't control the tears! The weight of history finally overwhelmed me. Even now the tears are beginning to well up again. It's an almost impossible dream!
For me personally, it feels like Camelot's been reborn again. "Camelot?" you may be wondering. That's what the JFK era was called even at the time. This goes far beyond the Clinton years. It belongs to an entirely higher realm—an almost mythical realm where history is written on the stars!
For me personally, it feels like Camelot's been reborn again. "Camelot?" you may be wondering. That's what the JFK era was called even at the time. This goes far beyond the Clinton years. It belongs to an entirely higher realm—an almost mythical realm where history is written on the stars!
The emotion felt at the sight of the newly elected president and his young family was also reminiscent of the Kennedy family. The growing sense of awe was only heightened by Obama's remarkable reserve. He didn't celebrate. He quietly comforted and calmed. He was, if anything, pensive. He even undercut his usually soaring rhetoric. "Yes we can" was more of an afterthought than a exclamation.
As a result, the effect was not jubilation, but introspection. There was a sense of relaxation, but not victory in the usual sense. It was a gathering in of breath as if preparing for the long road ahead. As he said, this was not the change itself, it was only the opportunity to make the change. Now the real work begins!
As a result, the effect was not jubilation, but introspection. There was a sense of relaxation, but not victory in the usual sense. It was a gathering in of breath as if preparing for the long road ahead. As he said, this was not the change itself, it was only the opportunity to make the change. Now the real work begins!
Some of you, I know, think I shouldn't have mentioned my fears...as if that alone may jinx Barack. It's certainly not mentioned on the media, for instance. This unspoken foreboding, however, only demonstrates how profound our fears actually are. They cannot even be mentioned! They must be mentioned by someone, though, if only to make sure that everything possible—and I mean everything!—is being done to keep him safe.
Congratulations, Nation! It's a new day after the long, national nightmare that was the Bush years.
Monday, November 3, 2008
The Benchmark for Measuring the Bradley Effect
Here's the final CNN Poll of Polls (ending Novmber 2, 2008):
- 51% Obama
- 44% McCain
It's against this measure that tomorrow's results will be judged, especially the Bradley effect!
Monday, October 27, 2008
Obama's Lead in the Polls
As the CNN poll of polls below shows, Obama's lead has been surprisingly stable over the last six months at about six or seven points.
chart by Jim Whiteside
The only things that have significantly moved the numbers are Sarah Palin's acceptance speech (which pulled the tickets even at 46 percent) and the economic meltdown (which not only erased the Palin effect, but pushed Obama over 50% for the first time).
More importantly, the trend for Obama leveled off at 51% about a week ago. If that holds, he finally has enough votes to win. In other words, the American public appears to have settled on Obama as a direct result of the present economic crisis.
That's not to say the election won't be close. The Bradley effect suggests that a large marjority of the undecideds will break for McCain. That's why breaking the 50% barrier is so critical...critical to a close win, in other words, nothing more!
More importantly, the trend for Obama leveled off at 51% about a week ago. If that holds, he finally has enough votes to win. In other words, the American public appears to have settled on Obama as a direct result of the present economic crisis.
That's not to say the election won't be close. The Bradley effect suggests that a large marjority of the undecideds will break for McCain. That's why breaking the 50% barrier is so critical...critical to a close win, in other words, nothing more!
The CNN Poll of Polls
Did you know there's one poll that claims to have no margin of error? Yes! It's the CNN National Poll of Polls.
chart by Jim Whiteside
How is that possible? By combining up to eleven different polls, it increases the sample size. That reduces the margin of error. Once the margin drops below half a point, you can say with a high degree of confidence that the results are accurate...but not perfect! There's still a margin of error. It's just very small.
Adding to its significance are the polls included in the CNN poll:
Adding to its significance are the polls included in the CNN poll:
- American Research Group
- Franklin & Marshall
- IPSOS-McClatchy
- Fox/Opinion Dynamics
- AP/GfK
- Pew
- CNN/ORC
- ABC/Washington Post
- Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
- Gallup
- Diageo/Hotline
There are several new factors, however, that may reduce its accuracy in this unusual election:
- The Bradley effect
- The inability of pollers to accurately sample cell phone users
- Unknown turnout percentages for enthusiast new voters
- Unknown turnout percentages for enthusiast young voters
- Unknown turnout percentages for enthusiast Black voters
The Bradley effect suggests that nearly all of the undecided voters will break for the white candidate. Since the latest poll of polls has Obama at 51%, that shouldn't be problem unless the race tightens. The cell phone problem, however, will take several election cycles to clarify.
The effects of enthusiasm, however, have always been overestimated. Young, new, and even Blacks have always disappointed their believers in the past. Since Obama is Black, there's good reason to think this time might be different, but even that's not a sure thing.
Since it's not clear how the pollsters are weighting all of these factors in their sampling techniques, CNN's claim of a zero margin of error can only be taken with a grain of salt. Even if the election were held tomorrow, it's still possible that McCain would win.
The effects of enthusiasm, however, have always been overestimated. Young, new, and even Blacks have always disappointed their believers in the past. Since Obama is Black, there's good reason to think this time might be different, but even that's not a sure thing.
Since it's not clear how the pollsters are weighting all of these factors in their sampling techniques, CNN's claim of a zero margin of error can only be taken with a grain of salt. Even if the election were held tomorrow, it's still possible that McCain would win.
Is Obama Buying the Presidency? Yes!
As you can see in the chart* below, Obama has raised almost twice as much as McCain this year—603 million as of the end of September. It's estimated that he'll raise three quarters of a million dollars by election time.
There's little question that this has a distorting effect on the selection of our leaders. In other words, if Obama wins in a close election, the chances are overwhelming that he bought it through advertising! That's because most people get information about the candidates passively by overhearing it while watching something else, i.e. through advertising.
Why does that make a difference? Because ads are one-sided at best and misrepresentations, if not outright lies, at worst. They take things out of context and exaggerate the differences. The only way for the opposition to correct this fictional narrative is through ads that set the story straight. Without money, a candidate can't correct misimpressions much less play the game in reverse and define the opponent through distortions and misrepresentations of their own! That's how politics is played in America.
Is this fair? Of course not. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court's interpretation of the free speech provision of the Constitution has hamstrung efforts to control spending. Until that changes, nothing definitive can be done.
In other words, short of a constitutional amendment or a new Supreme Court, the leadership of America is up for sale!
Why does that make a difference? Because ads are one-sided at best and misrepresentations, if not outright lies, at worst. They take things out of context and exaggerate the differences. The only way for the opposition to correct this fictional narrative is through ads that set the story straight. Without money, a candidate can't correct misimpressions much less play the game in reverse and define the opponent through distortions and misrepresentations of their own! That's how politics is played in America.
Is this fair? Of course not. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court's interpretation of the free speech provision of the Constitution has hamstrung efforts to control spending. Until that changes, nothing definitive can be done.
In other words, short of a constitutional amendment or a new Supreme Court, the leadership of America is up for sale!
Image:
Open Secret. (2008, October 20). Banking on Becoming President. (OpenSecrets.org). Retrieved October 27, 2008 from http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.php
Tina Fey—The Reason McCain May Lose?
The video above is over a month old now and still brings a smile to my face, but will it and others lampooning Sara Palin make a difference? That's the question.
There's no clear answer statistically. Campaign contributions usually go up after an appearance on a late night comedy show.* The prevailing opinion among the punditocracy is that it doesn't become a problem until the characterization begins to take hold and the public accepts the portrayal as true. That's apparently what happened with Chevy Chase's depiction of Gerald Ford in 1976.* The same thing appears to be happening with Tina Fey's Sarah Palin.
In other words, it could indeed cost McCain the election, not only because she's not ready for the Presidency, but also because it calls into question his judgment.
The long-range effect on Palin, however, may not be all that bad. Even I find her personally appealing. If and when she masters the background necessary to speak knowledgeably about the issues, she could still make a comeback. That's the kind of change, however, few people ever accomplish.
There's no clear answer statistically. Campaign contributions usually go up after an appearance on a late night comedy show.* The prevailing opinion among the punditocracy is that it doesn't become a problem until the characterization begins to take hold and the public accepts the portrayal as true. That's apparently what happened with Chevy Chase's depiction of Gerald Ford in 1976.* The same thing appears to be happening with Tina Fey's Sarah Palin.
In other words, it could indeed cost McCain the election, not only because she's not ready for the Presidency, but also because it calls into question his judgment.
The long-range effect on Palin, however, may not be all that bad. Even I find her personally appealing. If and when she masters the background necessary to speak knowledgeably about the issues, she could still make a comeback. That's the kind of change, however, few people ever accomplish.
Video:
Saturday Night Live. (September 18, 2008) Palin/Hillary Open: Gov. Palin and Senator Clinton address the nation. (NBC.com). Retrieved October 27, 2008 from http://politicsinpurple.wordpress.com/2008/09/18/snl-skit-palin-hillary-speak-together/
DeRusha, Jason. (2008, September 23). Good Question: Does Political Comedy Affect Voters? (wcco.com). Retrieved October 27, 2008 from http://wcco.com/election/political.comedy.voters.2.823997.html
Sunday, October 26, 2008
The Beer-Babe Test
The accepted truth about how Americans choose a president is The Beer-Buddy Test. In other words, "Who would you most like to have a beer with?"
When the choice involves the opposite sex, though, there's a problem. Sex rears its ugly head! Palin is very attractive. There's no doubt about that. It undoubtedly plays a factor in the huge crowds at her rallies.
That's not the problem, though. The problem is why McCain chose her. She's so patently unqualified it raises the question of whether McCain's judgment was impaired by sexual attraction!
When the choice involves the opposite sex, though, there's a problem. Sex rears its ugly head! Palin is very attractive. There's no doubt about that. It undoubtedly plays a factor in the huge crowds at her rallies.
That's not the problem, though. The problem is why McCain chose her. She's so patently unqualified it raises the question of whether McCain's judgment was impaired by sexual attraction!
Let's call this The Beer-Babe Test. The fundamental question is "Was he seduced?" Ask yourself these questions:
- Did sexual attraction play a role in his choice?
- Did it cloud his judgment?
- Was he so flattered by her attention he chose her in spite of her shortcomings?
If you can answer yes to any of these questions, the candidate should automatically be disqualified for office. (When the roles are reversed, the same questions apply. Only the pronouns change.)
The Beer-Buddy Test is only a metaphor. The real question is "Who's best on TV?" In other words, who can you live with the longest knowing you're going to have to watch him or her on TV for the next four years? Let's call this The TV-Tolerance Test.
It's still a ridiculous standard. Why can't the question be, "Who's the best qualified?" Call this The Qualified-Voter Test because unless you can answer this question rationally, it's you who's not qualified. If you haven't studied the issues, in other words, why are you voting?
The Beer-Buddy Test is only a metaphor. The real question is "Who's best on TV?" In other words, who can you live with the longest knowing you're going to have to watch him or her on TV for the next four years? Let's call this The TV-Tolerance Test.
It's still a ridiculous standard. Why can't the question be, "Who's the best qualified?" Call this The Qualified-Voter Test because unless you can answer this question rationally, it's you who's not qualified. If you haven't studied the issues, in other words, why are you voting?
Image:
Image Editor. (2008, October 16). Sarah Palin dresses like porn’s “naughty” school teacher. Retrieved October 27, 2008 from http://www.flickr.com/photos/11304375@N07/2946781686/
The Dumbing Down of the Presidency!
The most disturbing trend in American politics is the embrace of the average Joe as a leader. I'm not only talking about the sitting president—a disaster by anyone's measure—but Sarah Palin as well. After suffering through eight years of incompetency, how could the Republicans, and perhaps the country, embrace yet another know-nothing?
The answer, of course, is childhood anger at people like myself who think we know more than they do. The fact that we do is immaterial. As they used to say about dictators around the world, "He may be a bastard, but at least he's our bastard!" In the case of Bush and Pallin, that should read, "They may be airheads, but at least they're our airheads!"
Image:
Pende, Brad. (2008, August 11). President Bush prepares to 'tap that.'" (flickr: cc-by bpende, August 11, 2008). Retrieved October 26, 2008 from http://www.flickr.com/photos/bpende/2753981194/
Anger as a Disqualifier for Public Office
John McCain has disqualified himself with the public by letting his anger show so much on the campaign trail. That's not the kind of person we want running the country, no matter how angry we ourselves may be. The result is a collapsing profile in the electoral college.
Unfortunately, his anger is not limited to the campaign trail. Listen to the testimony of some of his fellow senators:
- McCain's "temper would place this country at risk in international affairs and the world perhaps in danger. In my mind, it should disqualify him." —Bob Smith, former Republican senator from New Hampshire
- I don't "want this guy anywhere near a trigger." —Sen. Pete Domenici of New Mexico
- "The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He is erratic. He is hotheaded." —Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi
That's not to say he won't be elected. Racism runs deep in our society and may still put him office, but it will be because he's seen as the lesser of two evils....
...but still a dangerous one!
...but still a dangerous one!
Video:
bravenewpac. (2008, October 28). John McCain's Rage is a National Security Concern. (YouTube). Retrieved October 27, 2008 from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAyK-enrF1g
CNN. (2008, October 26). CNN Electoral Map Calculator: You Call the Race (CNNPolitics.com). Retrieved October 26, 2008 from http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/
ESNEAD. (2008, October 20). Why is John McCain so angry? Grrrrr! (The Los Angeles Times: The Dish Rag by Elizabeth Snead). Retrieved October 27, 2008 from http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/thedishrag/2008/10/why-is-john-mcc.html
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